FINAL 2025 OSCAR PREDICITONS
Sunday, March 2nd the Academy will gather to give out the most prestigious awards in film for the 97th time. Conan O’Brien will be there to shepherd you through and give you some laughs along the way and I am here to hopefully help you win you Oscar Poll with my Final Predictions in all categories! The Best Picture line-up is again terrific, harboring some beautiful surprises. The Substance becomes the first full-tilt body horror film ever nominated for the top prize. Tenured indie darling Sean Baker comes in to town riding a frontrunner and has his name penciled into 4 different categories. We’ll get to find out exactly how many apologies Karla Sofia Gascon owes people. Little Timmy has a puncher’s chance to become the youngest Best Lead Actor winner in the club’s history. And who knows, someone might even get assaulted, it has happened before. Intrigue abounds everywhere as fewer awards seem sewn up than is usually the case, and none more wide open and exciting than the Best Picture category. So let’s all tune in together this coming Sunday on Hulu at 7pm eastern and watch the Super Bowl of Cinema play out in real time, like in the old days. In the meantime, here are my best guesses for how all the cards may fall.
BEST PICTURE:
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part II
Emilia Pérez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
WILL WIN: Anora
MIGHT STEAL: Conclave
SHOULD WIN: Anora
SNUBBED: Could have been fun to
have Challengers here
ANALYSIS: And it’s a two-horse race. Karla Sofia Gascon going full scorched earth on her own campaign may have saved the Academy a lot of embarrassment, because Emilia Perez may have been en route to becoming one of the worst Best Picture winners of all time. There was no guarantee that Emilia Perez was going to win the top prize even with its impressive haul on nomination morning, but it’s certainly a guarantee now that it won’t win. Which only upsets the filmmakers behind Crash as they wouldn’t be regarded as the worst Best Picture winners anymore. This opens up the field for what might have been the true frontrunner all along, Anora. After a great comeback win at the Critics Choice and PGA, along with surprise DGA and Best Actress BAFTA wins, Anora looks to be in great shape. Closing the gap now though is Conclave, following wins for Best Film at BAFTA and Best Ensemble at SAG. A Complete Unknown’s great showing all award season paired with its palatable preferential ballot prospects, makes it the sneaky dark horse, but I think we are down to Anora and Conclave at this point. Conclave is likely to win Screenplay and Editing at the Oscars which is a great pairing to also win Picture. The miss in Director obviously doesn’t bode well, but that didn’t stop Argo or Coda. It’s very interesting because the British bloc and the Actors obviously have a huge say on who ultimately wins Best Picture and they appear to be in Conclave’s corner, but the PGA/DGA combo that Anora has is seldom an apparition. It will be a tense envelope opening this year to say the least. On a personal note, Anora also topped my list for Best Movies of the Year, and my pick and the Academy have only coincided twice in the 15 years since I started my annual list, and not since Spotlight in 2016. So that would be fun! Shout out to the Academy for recognizing out of the comfort zone picks like The Substance and Nickel Boys, two of the best movies of the year and ones that not long ago would have no shot at garnering a nomination.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Sean Baker - Anora
Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
James Mangold - A Complete
Unknown
Jacques Audiard - Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat - The Substance
WILL WIN: Sean Baker
MIGHT STEAL: Brady Corbet
SHOULD WIN: Corbet or Baker
SNUBBED: Ramell Ross, Denis
Villeneuve
ANALYSIS: James Mangold is a
reliable, rock-solid director who has produced great work throughout his
career. That said he doesn’t need to be here. Jacques Audiard has made a
handful of better films than Emilia Perez but the best part of the movie,
outside of Zoe Saldana, is the direction, so it isn’t egregious that he’s here either.
But with Denis Villeneuve on the table and Ramell Ross’s incredible narrative
feature debut there just seemed to be better prospects available. For
the winning Conversation, Corbet’s work is more impressive, but the film isn’t
as warmly received. Also, Baker has paid dues for longer than the relative
newcomer in Corbet, which has always mattered in this category. There is
certainly room for an upset here and the you can infer based on nominations
that The Academy likes the Brutalist more than any other awards body this year
outside of maybe the Globes. This one will also be interesting.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING
ROLE:
Cynthia Erivo - Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascón - Emilia
Pérez
Mikey Madison - Anora
Demi Moore - The Substance
Fernanda Torres - I'm Still
Here
WILL WIN: Mikey Madison
MIGHT STEAL: Demi Moore
SHOULD WIN: Mikey Madison
SNUBBED: Marianne Jean-Baptiste
for Hard Truths, but that movie never seemed to click anywhere this year.
ANALYSIS: Another neck and neck
race here for Best Lead Actress between Moore and Madison. Moore won SAG which
may have been expected and gave yet another excellent acceptance speech to bolster
her good will, and she certainly has the more appealing narrative. But Madison’s
small surprise at BAFTA just sticks out to be as an important bellwether. The
Brits liked the Substance more and Anora less than the Academy did, if the nominations
are to be trusted, and yet Mikey still snuck out the win. That feels important
to me. I think the small boost Fernanda Torres got from being viewed as the
good guy in the Gascon exchange was interesting, but I don’t think materialized
enough to sufficiently upset this race.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING
ROLE:
Adrian Brody - The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet - A Complete
Unknown
Colman Domingo - Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice
WILL WIN: Adrian Brody
MIGHT STEAL: Timothee Chalamet
SHOULD WIN: Brody
SNUBBED: Daniel Craig - Queer
ANALYSIS: Chalamet needed to win
at SAG in order for this award to have any intrigue and he did. It’s not enough
to deter me, but it at least lifted an eyebrow. The most interesting facet of
this entire race is that Chalamet would become the youngest Best Lead Actor
winner in the Academy’s history if he won. And the person standing in his way
is Adrian Brody, who currently holds the distinction for youngest Best Lead
Actor winner. By winning this weekend Brody would take home his second Oscar
and preserve his own record. Compelling stuff.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING
ROLE:
Monica Barbaro - A Complete
Unknown
Ariana Grande - Wicked
Felicity Jones - The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini - Conclave
Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Pérez
WILL WIN: Zoe Saldana
MIGHT STEAL: Ariana Grande
SHOULD WIN: Felicity Jones
SNUBBED: Natasha Lyonne for His
Three Daughters or Margaret Qualley for The Substance
ANALYSIS: This category was
strange all awards season and it just never looked particularly strong. I
actually really liked Monica Barbaro’s performance and was pleasantly surprised
by the nomination, but overall this is underwhelming. Grande is so much fun but
I don’t think the conversation around her winning ever materialized. Saldana is
the best part of her film. She is the lead, but when the movie bears someone
else’s name, they usually get that distinction instead. I think that she has
successfully avoided any collateral damage suffered by the Emilia Perez controversy.
I think she will be a worthy winner, even for a movie I never really jived with.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING
ROLE:
Yura Borisov - Anora
Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
Edward Norton - A Complete
Unknown
Guy Pearce - The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice
WILL WIN: Kieran Culkin
MIGHT STEAL: Yura Borisov but it
seems sewn up
SHOULD WIN: Guy Pearce
SNUBBED: Clarence Maclin
ANALYSIS: Culkin hasn’t lost
anywhere all year. It’s a clean sweep barring a jaw-dropping surprise. Guy Pearce
I think does the best work here of the group but a Culkin win would be just
fine with me, continuing his terrific year following his Emmy win for Succession.
No drama, but it should be an entertaining speech to make up for it.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
A Complete Unknown (Jay
Cocks & James Mangold)
Conclave (Peter Straughan)
Emilia Pérez (Jacques
Audiard, Thomas Bidegain & Nicolas Livecchi)
Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross
& Joslyn Barnes)
Sing Sing (Clint Bentley,
Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin & John "Divine G" Whitfield)
WILL WIN: Conclave
MIGHT STEAL: Probably none of them
SHOULD WIN: Nickel Boys
SNUBBED: I’m Still Here, The Piano
Lesson, even Dune would work.
ANALYSIS: My biggest gripes with
the Academy are almost always in the writing categories, but this is pretty good.
Emilia Perez is getting plenty of hate in general and I also don’t see the
screenplay appeal, but I like everything else, so I’m good with it. Conclave
has this locked up, even if Nickel Boys and Sing Sing are better scripts, but it isn't a bad pick. They’re all close in my mind. A Complete Unknown is
interesting because while the script is good, I think a better movie ALMOST
surfaced. Let’s talk about it... A Complete Unknown would be a better screenplay
and better movie if Edward Norton’s Character was the lead, and Bob Dylan was
instead this tumbleweed on fire that rolled through town, set it on fire, and
then carried on along. And it felt like
they almost went that way but then backed out halfway through because they knew
a star vehicle for a biopic is more marketable. This story is better told in
the Amadeus method than in the Bohemian Rhapsody one. But alas, it’s still a
fine screen play. Doesn’t matter anyway, Conclave wins in a runaway.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (Brady Corbet
& Mona Fastvold)
A Real Pain (Jesse
Eisenberg)
September 5 (Tim Fehlbaum
& Moritz Binder)
The Substance (Coralie
Fargeat)
WILL WIN: Anora
MIGHT STEAL: A Real Pain or the
Substance
SHOULD WIN: Anora
SNUBBED: Challengers and His Three
Daughters
ANALYSIS: Anora is in a very precarious
situation. There is a world where Sean Baker leaves the Oscars with an armful
of awards, winning Best Picture, Best Director, Best Editing and Best
Screenplay along with Mikey Madison winning Best Lead Actress. There is also a
very real chance it wins none of those. Never has a perceived frontrunner felt
so unsteady in ALL of its races. In Screenplay it is vulnerable as evidenced by
high profile wins for A Real Pain at BAFTA and The Substance at Critics Choice
Awards. Anora won at the WGA. I have never seen a movie sweep the guilds like Anora
has, but not pull out any wins from the big awards bodies. These are
unprecedented times. Working against Anora is its loose, improvisational feel,
that makes the movie feel more authentic but also less arduously written. I
think an upset here is honestly pretty likely. Anora has, in my estimation, a 50%
chance of winning with the other half being split among A Real Pain and The
Substance. This could be the moment of the night when we see how the Academy
really feels about Anora and its prospects of taking Best Picture.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
The Brutalist (Lol Crawley)
Dune: Part II (Greig Fraser)
Emilia Pérez (Paul
Guillaume)
Maria (Edward Lachman)
Nosferatu (Jarin Blaschke)
WILL WIN: The Brutalist
MIGHT STEAL: Nosferatu
SHOULD WIN: Nosferatu
SNUBBED: Conclave, Challengers, I Saw the TV Glow
ANALYSIS: Conclave missing for
Cinematography and Director are what Anora stans (like myself) will point at to
highlight some perceived weakness Conclave has within the Academy. And it is
strange that is absent here, with Maria pulling out its lone nomination here
instead. Challengers is another obvious snub here, but that movie never
registered with the Academy and this category is always a buzzsaw. Even some
bad movies even look great now so this category will continue to be one of the
more difficult nominations to secure. The ones that are here are superb. The Brutalist
looks poised to win, and it is spectacular. The Opening 15 minutes were enough
to sell me on at least a nomination. Nosferatu is somehow even better. It is
possibly the most visually arresting film I have ever seen. It would be a very
splashy win if Nosferatu could overcome the Brutalist despite not being
nominated for Best Picture. The last movie to win Cinematography without being
Nominated in Best Picture was Barry Lyndon in 1975. A Stanley Kubrick film. That’s
the company it must keep. And that was back when there were only 5 Best Picture
nominations. Nosferatu not getting into a group of 10 makes it even less
likely. It’s the Brutalist. Write it in pen.
BEST EDITING:
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
WILL WIN: Conclave
MIGHT STEAL: The Brutalist or
Anora
SHOULD WIN: The Brutalist or Anora
SNUBBED: Nickel Boys
ANALYSIS: Editing at the Academy
is often times a mini Best Picture race, with usually four nominations being
the frontrunners and then one spot for an outlier with flashy editing or sound
design. The winners though, can be very unpredictable. This year, editing might
be an Oscar Poll winner. I think conclave rides the momentum of its BAFTA win
in the category. If Conclave misses here then I don’t think it looks good for
its Best Picture chances, especially if it loses out to Anora. If Anora takes
editing it sucks some of the drama out of the show and it could be an Anora coronation
party. If any of the others win, and a case can be made for each, then we don’t
learn much. Thrillers don’t often win this category so a Conclave win feels
strange and yet I do think it is most likely.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance
Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
WILL WIN: The Wild Robot
MIGHT STEAL: Flow
SHOULD WIN: Probably The Wild Robot
SNUBBED: This is good
ANALYSIS: Animated Feature is always
such a tough category to pick the “should win” but always a lay-up for “will
win”. There is always a bunch of excellent work done in animation and all have very
loyal and passionate supported of each film and yet somehow by Oscar Sunday everyone
has coalesced around a clear choice. That seems to be happening here again with
The Wild Robot and that’s fine with me. Flow is also great, and I haven’t seen
Wallace and Gromet but given their track record, I’m sure it’s wonderful.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
FILM:
I'm Still Here
The Girl with the Needle
Emilia Pérez
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Flow
WILL WIN: I’m Still Here
MIGHT STEAL: Emilia Perez
SHOULD WIN: I’m Still Here
SNUBBED: Its not a snub because it
wasn’t submitted but All We Imagine as Light feels like a big miss, and Kneecap
could have been fun here. But this is a great field.
ANALYSIS: Here we find out how
much blowback Emilia Perez really received in the Academy. You could make the
argument that Gascon and the film itself weren’t going to win Best Lead Actress
or Best Picture, but with 13 nominations we damn sure knew it was going to win
Best International Film. And it still might, but I am not counting on it. At the
end of the day, I’m Still Here is the better and more deserving film anyway, but
it is a juicy category none-the-less.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
Sugarcane
WILL WIN: No Other Land
MIGHT STEAL: Sugarcane
SHOULD WIN: No Other Land
SNUBBED: I don’t think I saw any docs
outside of these that reasonably could have contended.
ANALYSIS: Always a tough category
to get into and to decipher where the Academy might go with it. In years past
they often go with what seems like the most “important” topic, but they run
into the issue that many of these topics are important. No Other Land seems
most heavy and most prevalent in voter’s minds. It’s also an unflinching
powerhouse of a doc, so I would be real happy with that outcome. It always
feels strange talking about the films about these events rather than the issues
they cover instead, but that’s what we are here for in this moment.
EDUCATED GUESSES
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part II
Nosferatu
Wicked
WILL WIN: Wicked
ANALYSIS: Conclave feels a little
small against the competition here and something like Gladiator II feels like it was snubbed, but otherwise I like this five. Wicked is going to perform well in the techs
and I think this one is its biggest slam dunk. The Brutalist is all about
architecture so the logic tracks that the production design would be good, and
it is, but the movie is not called the Gothic Guy or Art Deco Person. Brutalism
is inherently minimalistic. I’m guessing too much so to win here.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked
WILL WIN: Wicked
ANALYSIS: I don’t think there’s an
obvious juggernaut here, though I am happy to ser Gladiator II’s costuming get
some love considering the movie was not popular with the Academy. This award
more than most will go away from Best Picture movies to reward the craft in
isolation, but I don’t see that happening this year. I think Wicked stacks a
couple techs and this is one of them.
BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP:
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
WILL WIN: The Substance
ANALYSIS: The hair and make-up department appreciated
body horror before it was cool. I think The Substance had a good chance to take
this category even without the Best Picture Nomination. Getting Best Pic AND Best
Director noms cements it in. There is literally no other way this can go. Etch
it in stone. Oh, and to the people that thought the Academy never actually
loved Emilia Perez before the scandal, explain to me how it overperformed
enough to be nominated here.
BEST SOUND:
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part II
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
WILL WIN: Dune: Part II
ANALYSIS: Shout out to The Wild Robot
for being just the second animated film since 2010 (Soul, 2020) to be nominated
in the Sound category. That said, The Substance needs to be here. The sound in
that movie is more important to the success of the film than the performances
and almost as much as the make-up. That said, even if it were here, Dune Part
II should take this one anyway. A Complete Unknown might be a sleeper to steal
if the Academy doesn’t want to reward the Dune franchise again for the
ultimately the same sound design. Music biopics tend to do better than legitimate
musicals in this category but Les Mis and Dreamgirls have won in recent memory,
so there’s some hope for EP and Wicked.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
WILL WIN: The Brutalist
ANALYSIS: It has come up a few
times, but this time I’m actually angry. Where is Challengers? It’s not just a
top 5 score of the year, but it is the clear best score of the year. Emilia
Perez? For Score?! Conclave’s music is really good melding procedural political
drama bounciness with the moody, austere church strings. But the Brutalist’s
score is, like the rest of the film, much bigger and more ambitious. Which isn’t
always better, but in this case it is in fact better. Dune not being here for a technicality is also dumb, but I think The Brutalist was the best choice in any
event.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
"Never Too Late," (Elton
John & Brandi Carlile) - Elton John: Never Too Late
"El Mal," (Clement
Ducol, Camille & Jacques Audiard) - Emilia Pérez
"Mi Camino," (Clement
Ducol & Camille) - Emilia Pérez
"Like a Bird," (Adrian
Quesada & Abraham Alexander) – Sing Sing
"The Journey," (Diane
Warren) - The Six Triple Eight
WILL WIN: El Mal
ANALYSIS: Plain and simple I will
always take a song that appears in the movie over songs that play over the
credits or in the background, barely noticed. El Mal is the best song in Emilia
Perez if for no other reason that it doesn’t sing-talk the word “vagiiiiinnnaa.”
El Mal hits exactly as the movie starts to sag in the middle and really infuses
some life into the heart of he film. There have been worse winners here.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part II
Kingdom of the Planet of the
Apes
Wicked
WILL WIN: Dune: Part II
ANALYSIS: Nice pick-up for Alien:
Romulus, which I really enjoyed. Then you got a bunch of monkeys and Dune. Dune
is the clear and obvious choice here. ‘Nuff said.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:
A Lien
Anuja
I'm Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
The Man Who Could Not Remain
Silent
WILL WIN: I’m Not a Robot
ANALYSIS: Full disclosure I was derelict
in my responsibilities as a reviewer and prognosticator as it pertains to the
shorts this year. I may as well be throwing darts are a board but at least I’ve
heard of I’m Not a Robot, so that has to mean something.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT:
Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candies
Wander to Wonder
Yuck!
WILL WIN: Magic Candies
ANALYSIS: As a straight with a
sweet tooth, magic candy sounds more enticing than beautiful men, but how
beautiful are we talkin’ here? By this logic, Yuck! Should have no chance and probably
shouldn’t even be nominated, but alas, I was not consulted by the Academy.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
Death by Numbers
I Am Ready, Warden
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl in the Orchestra
WILL WIN: I Am Ready, Warden
ANALYSIS: Again, this is going based on the fact that I have at least heard of this one. I hope you got some insights and had some fun reading this. If you made it to the end, the treasure is buried 40 paces due east from the back gate of my childhood home, under a slowly dying oak tree. Congratulations!
Ryan Garasich 2/24/25
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